Israel Opens Polls as Yashar Surges and Netanyahu's Likud Slides

Polling stations opened at 7:00 a.m. on Tuesday across Israel, beginning a vote in which no parliamentary bloc is on course to reach the 61 seats required for a majority. The contest pits Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's sitting coalition against an opposition seeking to replace him, with neither side projected to clear the threshold without support from Arab parties.

The final Channel 12 survey released Friday, before voting began, put the opposition bloc at 56 seats and the prime minister's bloc at 50. Arab parties were projected to win a combined 16 seats. Most opposition leaders have pledged not to enter a government with those parties, arguing such a coalition would not be viable after the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack.

Within the opposition camp, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party was projected at 22 seats, ahead of Netanyahu's Likud at 19. Likud holds 32 seats in the outgoing Knesset. Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad was projected at 14 seats.

This is the first Knesset election held since the October 7, 2023, attack and the war that followed. The campaign has focused on the IDF's manpower shortage after three years of fighting, legislation on haredi conscription, and demands for a state commission of inquiry into the government's handling of the attack. Questions about Netanyahu's tenure have also featured prominently; he has led Israel for 19 non-consecutive years, and opposition leaders have called for him to be held accountable for the attacks and to leave office. Debates over Palestinian statehood have receded, with most parties aligned against it.

Turnout will shape which parties enter parliament. The electoral threshold stands at 3.25% of valid votes, and the number of ballots required to cross it rises as more people vote. Calculations by Prof. Alex Weinreb of the Taub Center's Demography Area estimate that at 70% turnout, matching 2022, a party would need 165,635 votes to qualify. Ofer Winter's People of Israel party and Yoaz Hendel's Reservists-Economics party are among those fighting to reach that mark, and whether they do will affect both blocs' ability to assemble a coalition.

Voting at Israeli diplomatic missions abroad ended on October 16, and balloting at some military bases began last week. Exit polls are due at 10:00 p.m. on Tuesday, with official results finalized in the days that follow as the count is completed.

Police announced Monday that roughly 20,000 officers, Border Police personnel and volunteers would be deployed nationwide on Election Day, including at thousands of polling stations, with particular attention to the period after exit polls are released. The force is charged with maintaining public order and safeguarding the integrity of the process so that voting is conducted in accordance with the law.