AP data reveals statewide Democratic shift in Tennessee despite Republican midterm victory
Republican candidates won most races on Tuesday, but voter margins moved toward Democrats in every county compared to the 2024 presidential election.
By Madison Lewis ·
Voters in Tennessee supported Republican candidates for governor, the U.S. Senate, and eight of nine U.S. House seats on Tuesday. Unofficial results show the GOP holding these major offices. Yet Associated Press statistics indicate a change in voting behavior across the state when compared to the 2024 presidential election. Every county in Tennessee saw a shift toward Democratic candidates.
The data shows specific increases in Democratic support in counties that have historically voted Republican. Williamson County, a traditional Republican stronghold, recorded a 17.6 point rise in Democratic voters. Maury County saw a more substantial change. In 2024, 72 percent of Maury County residents voted Republican while 27 percent voted Democrat. This year, the split shifted to 54 percent Republican and 33 percent Democrat, representing a 21 point increase for Democrats according to AP figures.
Davidson County, which typically votes Democratic, also showed a large margin change. The AP data reports a 25.6 point rise in Democratic voters there compared to the previous cycle. These figures mark the first election under Tennessee’s new congressional map. The shift occurred even as the state’s political leanings remained firmly with the GOP in terms of seat control.
Tennessee has leaned Republican in recent election cycles. The 2026 midterms continued that pattern in terms of officeholders. However, the underlying voter margins suggest a different trend in individual county preferences. The state did not flip its governor’s seat or its Senate seat to the Democrats, maintaining its current partisan composition in state and federal leadership positions.
Other states experienced larger partisan changes. Five states flipped their gubernatorial seats to Democrats in this election. Ohio elected Amy Acton and Texas elected Gina Hinojosa. Both states had not elected a Democratic governor in more than 20 years. Seven states flipped their Senate seats to the Democratic Party. No state flipped to the Republican Party in either gubernatorial or Senate races so far.
Tennessee’s races will be certified in the coming days. The governor-elect has outlined priorities for her administration before being sworn in. The delay in calling some congressional and state races was due to the close margins observed in several districts. The final certified numbers will confirm the unofficial projections released on Election Day.
