Five states Trump won big are now too close to call for the Senate
Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas have moved to toss-up status, changing the math for control of the upper chamber.
By Madison Lewis ·
Voters in five states that Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024 now face Senate races with no clear favorite. The Cook Political Report rates Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas as Toss Ups. This shift marks a major change from the start of the cycle, when Democrats were viewed as longshots to gain ground in red states.
The competitive environment has been driven by polling data, advertising spending, and candidate travel. The ongoing war in Iran has also played a role in widening the field. All five races are currently within the margin of error.
Kirsten Gillibrand, the chairwoman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said the party is energized by the number of candidates winning in deep red and purple areas. She noted that people want change and that the party has strong talent on the field.
Republicans view the shift differently. Bernadette Breslin, the national press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, called the Democratic surge a fever pitch. She cited a controversy in the Alaska race involving the campaign for Mary Peltola. Breslin said common-sense voters are preparing to reject the agendas of candidates like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, Troy Jackson in Maine, and Peltola.
The political winds are blowing in various directions across the map. North Carolina, a state Trump won narrowly, is now a likely flip for Democrats. Former Governor Roy Cooper is the favored candidate there. President Trump acknowledged Cooper’s likely win during a recent stop in the state. Georgia, once a top Republican target, is now a likely hold for Democrats.
South Carolina, where Trump won by 18 points, is leaning Republican. Mississippi and Nebraska also favor GOP candidates, though they are more competitive than expected. Democrats need to flip a net of four seats to control the Senate. Republicans still have targets in Michigan, New Hampshire, and Minnesota. Winning even one of those races complicates the Democratic math.
Republican turnout will likely be the deciding factor. Low turnout could mean the difference between Democrats netting one or two seats and picking up six or seven. The Cook Political Report places North Carolina in Tier 1 as a likely Democratic win. Michigan and Ohio are Tier 2 toss-ups. Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas are Tier 3 toss-ups. Kansas, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Minnesota are Tier 4. Mississippi, Nebraska, and Georgia are Tier 5.
