Pennsylvania House races hover near parity as $121 million ad war heats up
New polling suggests Democrats could flip up to four congressional seats, but Republicans are spending heavily to defend their slim majority in the final days before Election Day.
By Jabari Long ·
More than $121 million in advertising dollars have been poured into four competitive Pennsylvania House races, a figure that underscores the high stakes of the upcoming midterm elections. The spending war has intensified as candidates in the 1st, 7th, 8th, and 10th districts launch final pushes to sway voters. A new poll from the Inquirer, New York Times, and Siena University indicates that Democrats currently hold the advantage in three of these districts, while the fourth remains tied.
In the Philadelphia suburbs, U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick faces a tough challenge from Bucks County commissioner Bob Harvie. The poll shows Harvie holding a narrow lead over the five-term Republican. Fitzpatrick, who has cultivated a moderate image, leaned heavily on labor unions during a rally at a Northeast Philadelphia union hall this past Saturday. He told supporters that their loyalty runs deep, calling them the family he wants to represent.
Despite his moderate branding, Fitzpatrick continues to receive financial support from Republican leadership. Recent campaign finance reports show he has benefited from millions of dollars from political action committees aligned with the GOP. His campaign also aired spots claiming he is ranked number one as the most independent member of the House. However, critics point out that he votes with President Donald Trump roughly 70 percent of the time, the lowest rate among House Republicans.
Fitzpatrick has not secured an endorsement from the president, though the MAGA Inc. super PAC has spent at least $100,000 on his behalf. At the labor rally, Fitzpatrick stated that he would not stand beside the president if he visited the district. He emphasized his support for union members, a strategy aimed at differentiating himself from his more conservative party colleagues.
Meanwhile, Harvie is making his final pitch to voters through town halls and rallies. He held a session at Ben Franklin Middle School in Levittown, where he addressed issues ranging from affordability to election security. Harvie acknowledged that some voters question his visibility in the final stretch, but he maintained his confidence. He promised to be a fighter for the district and scheduled a rally with Gov. Josh Shapiro in Doylestown to close out the campaign.
The 7th District race in the Lehigh Valley has become a mudslinging contest between incumbent Ryan Mackenzie and challenger Bob Brooks. Brooks, a union leader and retired firefighter, has led in polls for months. The race is marked by unusual twists, including accusations that Mackenzie manipulated ballot access. The only planned debate was canceled, and both campaigns have exchanged cease-and-desist letters.
Mackenzie is spending heavily to attack Brooks' personal and professional history. The district has seen $31.8 million in ad spending, making it the second most expensive congressional race in the state. Brooks, speaking from a union hall in Bethlehem, said he is numb to the attacks. He noted that his supporters love the fire puns and that he is concentrating on the issues rather than the noise.
In the Harrisburg-based 10th District, Rep. Scott Perry is battling Democrat Janelle Stelson. The race is tied in the polls. Perry is doubling down on a controversial advertisement claiming Stelson exposed herself to a neighbor's grandchild. Stelson's campaign has called the claim false and is considering legal action. Perry stated that the ad shows a pattern of poor judgment, while Stelson's manager said Central Pennsylvania is ready to send Perry packing.
Gov. Shapiro, who is running for reelection, is visiting each of these districts in the next four days. House Speaker Mike Johnson is also traveling to support at least one Republican candidate. President Trump, however, has turned his attention to other states for this election cycle. He has not indicated plans to visit Pennsylvania, a shift from his focus in previous years.
The outcome of these four races could determine the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives. With the Republican majority held by a slim margin, losing even one of these seats could change the leadership structure of Congress. Candidates are continuing to knock on doors and hold community events as they strive to secure enough votes to hold or flip their respective seats.
