Former Ambassador Oren: Trump Ends US Aid to Israel Years Early

Dr. Michael Oren, former Israeli ambassador to the United States and current deputy minister in the Prime Minister's Office, told 103FM that US President Donald Trump has moved up the schedule for ending American military aid to Israel. Oren stated that the decision comes roughly two years before the existing memorandum of understanding with the Obama administration was set to expire. He noted that Trump cited Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recommendation as the basis for the change.

Oren linked the timing of the announcement to the current American political climate. He observed that military assistance to Israel has become a central topic in Democratic campaign strategies. Oren described Trump's announcement as a potential trial balloon or a definitive bombshell. He emphasized that Israel must prepare for the possibility of ending aid, a position he has held for a long time.

The former ambassador warned that Israeli planners can no longer assume a ten-year window to transition from foreign aid to a strategic partnership. He stressed that the timeline is controlled by Washington, not Jerusalem. Oren pointed to the risk that the Democratic Party could take control of one or both chambers of Congress. He reminded listeners that Democrats have previously voted to end military aid, a move that could eventually halt intelligence sharing and other forms of cooperation.

Oren argued that reducing Israel's military capabilities undermines American strategic interests. He compared Israel's role to that of a major power, noting that the US has one ally willing to fight shoulder to shoulder with it. He stated that Israel enhances American security through its technology and its location in a sensitive region. Oren questioned the logic of reducing the capacity of the one country that contributes directly to US security.

Shifting focus to domestic American politics, Oren discussed the changing influence of American Jewish communities. He noted that the Muslim population in Michigan is now larger than the Jewish population in that state. He also cited that one-third of Jews in New York voted for Zohran Mamdani. Oren said the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, is under scrutiny from politicians across the spectrum and is no longer the largest lobby in Washington.

Oren expressed surprise at the prospect of immediate termination during an active war. He questioned the practicality of stopping aid while Israel is engaged in conflict. He suggested that Trump might support Netanyahu in exchange for the Prime Minister holding off on launching a war before the midterm elections. Oren contrasted this with an agreement to give up military aid in exchange for an endorsement.

He highlighted the diplomatic weight of American support, particularly at the United Nations. Oren referred to US backing as a political and diplomatic Iron Dome. He asked who would cast a veto to block sanctions on Israel at the Security Council if that support disappeared. He reiterated his long-standing call to transform military assistance into a partnership rather than maintaining the status quo.

Oren warned against replacing American military production with Chinese alternatives. He described this move as crossing a red line for Washington. He recalled meetings with several US administrations where officials told Israeli counterparts that they had to choose between the US and China, but could not have both. Oren said he initially opposed the current memorandum of understanding because of the opportunity costs involved.

He noted that Israel could not choose every item it wanted to buy under the agreement. He mentioned requests for B-1 or B-2 bombers and Tomahawk missiles that were denied. Conversely, he said Israel was blocked when it wanted to sell equipment to China. Oren concluded by stating that the next step involves determining how the transition from aid to partnership will be structured in the coming months.