US-Israel Aid Deal Expires in 2028 Amid Shift to Partnership Model
New elections in both nations reshape the diplomatic landscape, moving the focus from annual grants to joint ventures and shared strategic interests.
By Jabari Long ·
A new memorandum of understanding will replace the current ten-year aid agreement between the United States and Israel before it expires in 2028. The shift marks a transition from a model of American assistance to a partnership framework, driven by changing global norms and domestic priorities in both countries. Negotiations on this new agreement are already underway.
The timing of these negotiations coincides with a rare electoral window. Within one week of each other, Americans voted for a new Congress and Israelis elected a new Knesset. These votes determine the political forces that will shape the relationship over the coming four years. The outcome affects how Washington scrutinizes Jerusalem and how both publics view their shared security interests.
In the US, a Democratic majority in the House is anticipated. This control shifts power over appropriations and committee hearings. In July, 103 House Democrats voted for an amendment to cut $3.3 billion in annual military aid to Israel. While the Senate can block such measures and the President can veto them, House control allows lawmakers to condition aid and impose reporting requirements. This mechanism turns aid debates into a recurring feature of the legislative calendar.
The current agreement provides approximately $3.8 billion per year in military support. The new MOU aims to phase out this aid gradually. Instead, the relationship will rely on joint ventures, co-production in research and development, and academic cooperation. This model acknowledges that the alliance benefits both sides economically and strategically. The US gains advantages in great power competition, while Israel builds greater self-reliance following the events of October 7, 2023.
Political dynamics in Israel have shifted to the right, a trend accelerated by the war with Iran. An overwhelming majority of Jewish Israelis supported the conflict, viewing it as a necessity. In contrast, American public opinion, particularly among Democratic voters, shows only minority support for what is perceived as a war of choice. This creates an expectation gap that could strain the new government in Jerusalem. Coalition partners will further constrain Israeli leadership, making it difficult to meet ambitious demands from Washington.
Midterm elections typically serve as a launchpad for presidential campaigns. President Donald Trump is expected to focus his remaining energy on international legacy projects. He may pursue a comprehensive deal with Iran, order further military actions, or accelerate plans for the Gaza Strip. These initiatives will present Israel with both opportunities and threats. A new Middle East architecture could favor Israeli security, but American pressure might force compromises on a US timetable.
Leaders in both countries must manage these divergent expectations through direct dialogue. Democrats are not a single bloc, and not every critic of Israeli policy seeks to end security cooperation. Sharp diplomatic tools and clear lines of communication are necessary to bridge the gap between the two publics. The relationship must rest on shared strength rather than dependence.
The new Knesset will determine the Prime Minister who negotiates the final terms of the MOU. The US Congress will set the legislative environment for the next two years. Both sides face a turbulent period at home and abroad. The alliance has survived previous crises, but this phase requires candor from leaders and publics to maintain stability.
