Senate Race: 13 Battlegrounds Decide Control

Voters across the United States are casting ballots on Election Day to determine which party will control the U.S. Senate for the next two years. The midterm election is halfway through President Donald Trump's second term, and the results will shape Congress for his final two years. Thirty five of the 100 Senate seats are up for grabs, including 33 regular elections and two special elections. The special seats replace those of Marco Rubio in Florida and JD Vance in Ohio, who were elected to the Senate in 2022.

Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate, while Democrats hold 45, plus two independents who caucus with Democrats. To gain a majority, Democrats need a net gain of four seats. Republicans can afford to lose only two seats to maintain their current advantage. Eleven senators are not running again, including four Democrats and seven Republicans. The winners of these races will begin their six year terms on January 3, 2027.

Ballotpedia identifies 13 battleground races that could determine the balance of power. In Alaska, Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan faces a challenge in a state where Trump won by 13.1 points in 2024. Ratings describe the race as a toss up to lean Democratic. In Florida, Republican Ashley Moody runs in a special election for Rubio's seat. The state voted for Trump by 13.1 points, and the race is rated a toss up to lean Democratic.

In Georgia, Democrat Jon Ossoff seeks reelection in a state that went for Trump by 2.2 points in the 2024 presidential election. The race is rated lean to likely Democratic. In Iowa, the seat is open because incumbent Joni Ernst is retiring. The state voted for Trump by 13.2 points, and ratings describe the race as a toss up or tilt Republican. In Kansas, Republican Roger Marshall faces a challenge in a state that Trump won by 16.2 points. The race is rated toss up to lean Republican.

In Maine, Republican Susan Collins defends her seat in a state that voted for Kamala Harris by 6.9 points in 2024. The Associated Press notes that economic strain and tariffs have made the state competitive. All four major ratings groups call Maine a toss up. In Michigan, the seat is open because Gary Peters is retiring. The state went for Trump by 1.4 points, and the race is rated toss up to lean Democratic. In Montana, Steve Daines is retiring, leaving an open seat in a state Trump won by 19.9 points.

In Nebraska, Republican Pete Ricketts runs for reelection in a state that Trump won by 20.3 points. In New Hampshire, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is retiring, leaving an open seat in a state that voted for Harris by 2.8 points. In North Carolina, Thom Tillis is retiring, creating an open seat in a state Trump won by 3.3 points. The Associated Press highlights the matchup between former Governor Roy Cooper and former RNC chair Michael Whatley. In Ohio, Republican Jon Husted runs in a special election for the seat vacated by JD Vance. The state went for Trump by 11.2 points.

In Texas, the race features Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico. Trump backed Paxton over incumbent John Cornyn in the primary. The state voted for Trump by 13.6 points in 2024. The Associated Press describes the election as a referendum on Trump's second term, with voters struggling with high prices and angry over an unpopular war with Iran. AP-NORC polling shows that 35 percent of U.S. adults approve of Trump's job performance, while 25 percent approve of his handling of the economy. About seven in 10 say the country is heading in the wrong direction.

More than 57 million people had already voted as of Monday, surpassing the early vote of four years ago in many closely watched states. Republicans were bracing to lose the House and fighting to hold the Senate, while Democrats were cautiously optimistic. The Associated Press says one or two seats could tip either chamber. Republicans tried to beat the midterm pattern, where a president's party almost always loses seats, by using redistricting. However, new districts in Florida and elsewhere may not vote as drawn. The Associated Press reports that 88.1 percent of Republican general election TV ad spending went to states and districts Trump won in 2024, including more than $850 million where he won by 10 points or more.

RNC Chairman Joe Gruters stated that everything depends on turnout and that if they turn out their voters, they win. DCCC Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene said the American people are angry and want change. The election administration has seen legal challenges, with a federal judge temporarily barring the Trump administration from carrying out a plan to prevent noncitizen voting. Another judge ordered the administration to stop demanding that California election officials segregate ballots cast by people on lists of suspected noncitizens. The U.S. Postal Service added hours, staff, and special lines so mail ballots are counted on time.

The Associated Press notes that Trump held dozens of rallies, ending Sunday in Salina, Kansas, where he said he really wanted voters to pretend he was on the ballot. His schedule included stops in Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas. Many Republican candidates kept their distance from the president. Trump has continued to make claims about voting fraud, including that noncitizens vote in large numbers, and his administration has sued in Alaska and California. Democrats fear interference and intimidation as the Justice Department threatens to prosecute local election officials. The 2026 elections are likely to be the most expensive in history, with Republican committees outraising and outspending Democratic committees at the committee level, though Democrats outraised their opponents at the candidate level.