Projections favor Denver over Kansas City in Week 8

The Kansas City Chiefs face a difficult mathematical hurdle in Week 8, as a projection model predicts they will lose the matchup against the Denver Broncos more often than they will win it. The model assigns a 47 percent win probability to Kansas City, making them the underdog in a game where they are listed as 1.5-point and -125 money-line favorites. This projection stands in contrast to the Chiefs' status as a traditional powerhouse, suggesting a higher risk for fantasy and survivor pool participants selecting them.

The model, operated by SportsLine, runs 10,000 simulations for every NFL contest to generate these probabilities. Since 2024, the system has recorded 58 wins and 51 losses on its top-rated picks. It reports that players who staked $100 on these selections have generated over $5,000 in profit. For the upcoming Sunday slate, the data points away from the Chiefs and toward their opponents in the AFC West rivalry.

The Chiefs arrive at Empower Field at Mile High following their worst performance of the 2026 season. They suffered a 20-3 defeat to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday Night Football last week. Running back Kenneth Walker III was limited to 36 yards on 14 carries in that loss. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has completed 64.9 percent of his passes for 1,474 yards, nine touchdowns, and four interceptions in six starts.

The Denver Broncos enter the game with a three-game winning streak. As defending AFC West champions, they have found a rhythm that the model reflects in its 56 percent win probability projection for this contest. Quarterback Bo Nix has completed 59.2 percent of his passes for 1,271 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions. The Broncos defeated the Chiefs 31-10 in the season opener on Sept. 14, a result that remains a factor in the current dynamic.

Week 8 of the 2026 NFL season features a shortened schedule with only 14 games played due to four team byes. The slate is dominated by home favorites, but the spread of power varies widely. The Cincinnati Bengals hold the largest margin of victory projection, listed as 10.5-point favorites over the Tennessee Titans. The Titans have been competitive recently, with three of their last five games decided by a single score and one victory by a single point.

Other matchups on the schedule include the Dallas Cowboys, who are 6.5-point favorites against the Arizona Cardinals. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 2-point favorites at the Atlanta Falcons. The Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers are both 3.5-point favorites, facing the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns, respectively. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 7.5-point favorites over the Indianapolis Colts, while the Detroit Lions are 3.5-point favorites against the Minnesota Vikings.

The Los Angeles Rams are 6.5-point favorites against the Los Angeles Chargers in a divisional contest. The previous week proved turbulent for heavily favored teams, resulting in the elimination of several popular picks from survivor pools. The San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, and Houston Texans all fell from contention. The Texans, in particular, entered their game as 10.5-point favorites over the New York Giants but were eliminated.

Beyond the Chiefs and Broncos, the model has identified one additional team as a high-confidence pick, projecting a win in well over 70 percent of simulations. The analysis describes this team as a surprising choice that many pool players have not yet utilized. The system suggests this is the optimal time to select that team to secure a victory in the Week 8 survivor pool.

The game between the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday. The venue is Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado. The outcome will determine the next step for participants in survivor pools, where a single loss eliminates a player from the competition for the remainder of the season.